Official Employment Report (Non-Farm Payrolls – NFP) – 08:30 ET / 14:30 CEST

• Scheduled for release today by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), but likely delayed due to the federal government shutdown initiated on Oct 1. If not published, markets will monitor private payroll reports as a substitute.

ISM Services (PMI) – 10:00 ET / 16:00 CEST

• As a private release, this is unaffected by the shutdown. If the NFP is delayed, this will be the key market-moving data point for equities and crypto today.

Fed Speakers

• The Federal Reserve’s public schedule includes appearances (e.g., Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson), which could shape expectations for rate cuts ahead of the Oct 28–29 FOMC meeting.

Key Context: The government shutdown is disrupting the flow of official economic data (delaying NFP, Jobless Claims, CPI, Factory Orders). This increases market sensitivity to private data releases and policy-related headlines.

Today’s Tactical Outlook

If the NFP is not released, the primary catalyst will be the ISM Services report at 16:00 CEST and any headlines from Fed speakers. Expectation: Volatility spikes in bonds/FX are likely to spill over into tech/high-beta equities and major cryptocurrencies (BTC/ETH/SOL).

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Crypto Market – 30m Candlestick View

Reference prices from the feed (UTC): BTC 120,284, ETH 4,505.7, SOL 232.2. Use candle wicks and closes at the indicated levels to confirm breakouts or rejections.

Bitcoin (BTC) $120,284.00 +$1,514.00 (+1.27%) Today

BTCUSDT (30m)

• Current Structure: Wide intraday range following an impulsive move; Today’s High/Low: 121,046 / 118,376.
• Immediate Resistance: 121,050 (intraday), 122,000 (psychological).
• Immediate Support: 118,400 (intraday), 117,500 (psychological).
• Candlestick Signals:
  • Bullish Continuation: A 30m close above 121,050 with a large body and a short upper wick opens the way towards 122,000–123,000.
  • Bearish Reversal: A bearish engulfing or shooting star candle at the 121k–122k zone would lead to a test of 118,400; a closing break below this level activates a move towards 117.5k–116k.
• Trade Management: On a breakout, place a stop-loss below the low of the breakout candle. Set the first take-profit (TP1) at the next round number and a second (TP2) at +0.8–1.2% from the entry point.

ETHUSDT (30m)

• Intraday High/Low: 4,551 / 4,349.
• Resistance: 4,550; 4,600.
• Support: 4,350; 4,300.
• Candlestick Signals:
  • Bullish: An inside bar followed by an upward breakout and a close > 4,550 with a short wick suggests an extension towards 4,600–4,650.
  • Bearish: A bearish marubozu candle closing < 4,350 implies continuation down to 4,300–4,250.

SOLUSDT (30m)

• Intraday High/Low: 236.07 / 222.67.
• Resistance: 236; 240–245.
• Support: 223; 220–215.
• Candlestick Signals:
  • Bullish: A bullish engulfing pattern following a pullback that closes > 236 signals a potential leg up to 240–245.
  • Bearish: An inverted hammer showing rejection at 236, followed by a close < 223, would trigger a technical drop towards 220–215.

Trading Note: With official data delayed, prioritize confirmation from candle closes and avoid front-running breakouts. Volatility is expected to be primarily technically-driven until the ISM release at 16:00 CEST. The risk of false breakouts is elevated.

Implications for Equities (NYSE/NASDAQ) & Europe

• Growth/Tech Stocks: These are most sensitive to the ISM data and Fed expectations. The absence of NFP data may reduce macro visibility, placing greater emphasis on technical flows and intraday corporate earnings reports.
• Europe: Afternoon price action will likely follow the direction set by the U.S. markets post-ISM. Keep an eye on high-beta names and cyclical sectors.