Hallo zusammen!

Let’s execute today’s analysis. For me, yesterday unfolded exactly as a “clear short,” for reasons I detailed in yesterday’s post. I don’t say this to claim I’m a genius or that I can predict the future—far from it. But as I explained, the market is currently struggling to find a direction. This indecision generates violent movements in both directions, which are exacerbated by the appetite of leveraged retailers and the robots (algorithms) doing their job.

This brings us right back to the same spot we were yesterday and the day before: a day that starts beautifully green and optimistic in the Asian and European markets, only to deflate the moment the American market opens.

Look at yesterday: In the European morning, BTC was up nearly +2% and ETH +4%. How did they finish? BTC -1.30% and ETH -0.08%. But consider this: ETH traveled 4% in both directions. That is the definition of a “rabid” market.

The “Third Time’s the Charm”

In my country, we have a saying: “A la tercera es la vencida” (Third time’s the charm). This phrase is etched in my mind today because, for the third consecutive day, we are seeing the exact same panorama: a green morning before the US open.

The factor that will determine if the pattern holds or breaks today is the US CPI (Consumer Price Index) data, which will be released at 8:30 AM ET (New York Time). Whether we like it or not, this number will dictate the trend.

The burning question remains: Will BTC and ETH manage to bounce and aim for new ATHs, or will they continue their path down to the Weekly SMA 200?

Get comfortable, because the day promises action!

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The Macro Picture: The CPI Verdict

Today, Thursday, November 13, 2025, the macro spotlight is blindingly bright.

• United States (8:30 AM ET):
  • CPI & Real Earnings: This is the catalyst. A “hot” inflation number hardens the FED’s stance (bad for crypto). A “benign” reading could fuel risk appetite.
  • Jobless Claims: Also released at 8:30 AM, adding nuance to the labor market picture.
• Europe: The ECB Economic Bulletin and UK GDP data (which showed some weakness) have set the stage this morning, but the US CPI will override everything.

My Take: With NYSE and Nasdaq open as usual, the volatility at 8:30 AM ET will be significant. My rule remains: wait for the dust to settle.

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Technical Analysis: Coiling Before the Storm (30-Min Charts)

Let’s look at the charts right now. We are seeing consolidation, but the bias remains fragile given recent failures at resistance.

(Current reference prices: BTC ~$102,930, ETH ~$3,491, SOL ~$156.25, BNB ~$966. Remember, these are observations, not predictions or recommendations.)

BTCUSDT (30 min)

Bitcoin, at $102,930, is hovering above critical psychological support.

• Immediate Resistance: ~$104,800 – $105,300 (The ceiling that keeps rejecting price).
• Pivot / Control Zone: ~$102,800 – $103,200.
• Key Support: ~$100,900 – $101,500 (Where buyers stepped in yesterday).

What to Watch: BTC is trying to hold above its 20-period EMA. If it can close consecutive 30-min candles above $103,200, we might see a test of $105k. However, a break below $100,900 invalidates the intraday structure and opens the trapdoor.

ETHUSDT (30 min)

Ethereum, at $3,491, is showing slightly better relative tone than BTC but remains volatile.

• Immediate Resistance: ~$3,560 – $3,580.
• Pivot / Control Zone: ~$3,500 – $3,520.
• Key Support: ~$3,400 – $3,450.

What to Watch: RSI is slightly above 50, suggesting some buying interest. Breaking $3,580 is essential to unlock any upside extension. If the CPI is bad, watch the $3,400 level closely.

SOLUSDT (30 min)

Solana, at $156.25, is behaving with its typical high beta (volatility).

• Immediate Resistance: ~$160 – $161.
• Pivot / Control Zone: ~$156.
• Key Support: ~$151.50 – $153.00.

What to Watch: Momentum is flat, typical of a range waiting to explode. It needs to hold above $156 to have a chance at attacking $161. Below $151, the drop could be fast.

BNBUSDT (30 min)

BNB, at $966, continues to show structural resilience.

• Immediate Resistance: ~$975 – $980.
• Pivot / Control Zone: ~$960 – $970.
• Key Support: ~$950 – $960.

What to Watch: It’s holding its pivot. A breakout and close above $980 usually activates a broader altcoin move. It remains the outlier in terms of strength.

Final Thoughts

Today is “Judgment Day” for the short-term trend. We have the same setup as the last two days: Green morning in Europe… will we get the Red US Open again?

The CPI at 8:30 AM ET holds the answer. Don’t fight the robots during the news release. Watch the levels, wait for the reaction, and remember: capital preservation is key in a market this “rabid.”

Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and represents personal observations and technical analysis. It does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Please conduct your own research and consult a professional before making any financial decisions. For our full statement, please read our disclaimer here: https://tavoplus.com/disclaimer/