Hallo zusammen!

It’s Thursday, November 27, 2025. I’m still shaping the style of these posts. I don’t think a daily update is necessary—I’ll only write when a significant event occurs or something truly captures my attention.

I hadn’t written since last Friday (Nov 21) because, until yesterday, I didn’t see a major change. In that Friday post, I announced I was going long that day. I apologize for that; it was a lot of ego on my part. The very next day, the price hit the bottom of the bearish channel and reversed sharply. It’s a humbling market.

Powell’s Echo and a Quiet Holiday

Yesterday was the FED press conference. Jerome Powell reiterated that interest rate policy remains data-driven, signaling that gradual cuts are likely as inflation falls and the labor market cools, but without committing to a specific timeline.

The immediate crypto market reaction was positive. But if this move is real, it needs continuity today.

However, today is Thanksgiving Day in the US. American markets are closed. Frankly, with low liquidity, it is not a good time to trade. It’s time to rest and observe.

BTC’s Technical Battlefield

While we rest, let’s look at the fascinating technical setup on BTC.

(Current reference prices: BTC ~$90,800, ETH ~$3,000, SOL ~$141, BNB ~$888. Remember, these are observations, not predictions.)

On November 19, BTC had broken below its bearish channel and the long-term bullish trendline. It looked grim. But on Sunday, November 23, a reversal signal appeared—a very clear inverted hammer candle. This was confirmed on Monday, November 24, pushing the price back inside the bearish channel.

Right now, trading around $90,800, BTC is facing a critical test: it is up against the underside of that long-term trendline.

The big question is: Will it be rejected here, or will it break through?

• If rejected, it’s probable that the decline continues until Phase A of the correction is finally finished.
• If it breaks through, it’s probable that Wave B (the bounce) has begun, as I’ve written before.

The “Thanksgiving Effect” Lore

While staring at these charts in low liquidity, it’s worth mentioning a phenomenon many professionals talk about this time of year. You might have heard that after Thanksgiving, markets often stage a rally that lasts through the end of the year (sometimes bleeding into the famous “Santa Claus Rally”).

Is this correct, or just folklore?

Historically, in traditional finance, yes, the end of the year often carries a bullish bias due to holiday optimism and institutional year-end window dressing. Does this apply to our rabid crypto market? Not always perfectly, but as crypto intertwines more with traditional finance, seasonal risk appetite often spills over.

It’s not a guarantee—nothing is—but it is a seasonal tailwind that exists in the minds of many market participants right now, potentially clashing with the bearish technical structure we see on the charts.

Final Thoughts

I don’t have certainty about what will happen. I use this analysis simply to give structure to what I’m seeing. The technicals are at a resistance pivot, while seasonal lore suggests a rally. In the end, the market always does what it needs to do.

Enjoy the quiet day.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and represents personal observations and technical analysis. It does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Please conduct your own research and consult a professional before making any financial decisions. For our full statement, please read our disclaimer here: https://tavoplus.com/disclaimer/

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