Hallo zusammen!

Happy Tuesday, everyone. My opinion today isn’t fixed on whether the market is definitively declining, but I will tell you exactly what I’m seeing on the charts. This way, you can form your own hypotheses, perhaps refute my view, and maybe even change my mind!

I’ll focus on Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), because as you know, what BTC does, the rest usually follows, though ETH sometimes goes its own way for short periods. Yesterday, I wrote about the Elliott Wave pattern I see on the weekly chart. While that pattern is also visible on the daily, it’s visually very “noisy” there.

For BTC, yesterday was a positive day, up +1.2%. However, as I look at the charts this morning, before the American market even opens, I’m noticing two key things:

1. Lower Lows and Lower Highs: On the daily chart, BTC is clearly making lower lows and lower highs. It’s trading below its 20, 50, and 200 Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), the 20 and 50 are declining. This isn’t a picture of strength.
2. Developing Bearish Channel: It looks like a bearish channel is forming, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is neutral, indicating a loss of momentum.

If you look at ETH, SOL, and BNB, the story is precisely the same. They are all mirroring BTC’s structure, caught in this current weakness.

Today could be a decisive day. In the case of BTC, we’ll be watching closely to see if it breaks out of this developing bearish channel and pushes above the 20-day SMA. Will it, or won’t it? We’ll be on high alert. Tomorrow, we’ll have a clearer picture, or perhaps not – who knows?

Today might also be a slower day, as it’s Veterans Day in the U.S.

(Current reference prices: BTC ~$105,102, ETH ~$3,553, SOL ~$163.6, BNB ~$978 (adjusted to reflect the current market context of the others). Remember, these are observations, not predictions or recommendations.)

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The Macro Picture: Veterans Day and the Looming Shutdown

Today, Tuesday, November 11, 2025, is Veterans Day in the United States. While many businesses are closed, the NYSE and Nasdaq are operating normally. However, much of the U.S. bond market is closed, which can sometimes lead to thinner trading volumes and more volatile moves in equities.

The big elephant in the room that could impact all markets (equities, bonds, and crypto) is the ongoing U.S. government shutdown negotiations.

• Positive Headlines: Any news suggesting progress or a resolution could boost risk appetite (like we’ve seen recently) and potentially help crypto.
• Negative Headlines: Delays or a breakdown in talks could lead to quick sell-offs in stocks and a rotation into safer assets.

In Europe, we’ll see some unemployment data from the UK, which could influence the British Pound and overall European market sentiment. So, while not an “explosive macro day” like NFP, the combination of shutdown news and European data could certainly move global sentiment.

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Final Thoughts: The Chart Speaks, We Observe

Today is all about observation. The charts for BTC, ETH, SOL, and BNB are telling a very similar story: lower lows, lower highs, declining moving averages, and a potential bearish channel. While yesterday offered a small bounce, the underlying structure shows weakness.

With Veterans Day potentially impacting liquidity, and the critical shutdown negotiations looming, patience is key. We’ll be watching to see if BTC can break its current pattern. Tomorrow, the picture will either clear up, or perhaps remain as murky as ever. As always, we simply observe what the market is showing us.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and represents personal observations and technical analysis. It does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Please conduct your own research and consult a professional before making any financial decisions. For our full statement, please read our disclaimer here: https://tavoplus.com/disclaimer/