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Tag: RiskManagement
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Hallo zusammen! It’s funny how a bullish trap works. On Friday, during the half-day session and options expiry, BTC faced a critical crossroads at its long-term trendline. As I mentioned, this line had been broken days earlier, but a potential reversal signal—an inverted hammer on Sunday the 23rd, confirmed on Monday the 24th—gave some hope.…
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Hallo zusammen! It’s Friday, November 28, 2025. The market opens after Thanksgiving, and I have to admit, I feel a bit of fear. Today is “Black Friday.” In my country, for people of my generation, this term is almost always associated with devaluation and banking crises—the opposite of the shopping frenzy it means for the…
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Hallo zusammen! It’s Friday, November 21, 2025. Today, I want to discuss a potential reversal signal. On November 16, a Death Cross occurred on the BTC daily chart (where the 50-day SMA crosses below the 200-day SMA). This signal is notoriously difficult to interpret correctly. Many traditional traders view it as a definitive bearish omen.…
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Hallo zusammen! Today, November 20, 2025, I want to talk about a common phrase in the crypto world—one that, far from helping adoption, often has tragic consequences for newcomers dazzled by stories of absurd gains. It’s the almost unanimous cry from anyone with a bit of social media influence: “BUY THE DIP!” Many of these…
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Hallo zusammen! Friday, November 14, 2025. A day for reflection. Referring to what I wrote in yesterday’s post (which you can read here: the-lone-traders-watch-third-times-the-charm-cpi-algos-and-the-green-morning-trap-november-13-2025), yesterday was a crucial day. It was the third time this week the market violently tried to decide a direction, with average movements of 5% on each attempt. Yesterday, the market…
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Hallo zusammen! Let’s execute today’s analysis. For me, yesterday unfolded exactly as a “clear short,” for reasons I detailed in yesterday’s post. I don’t say this to claim I’m a genius or that I can predict the future—far from it. But as I explained, the market is currently struggling to find a direction. This indecision…
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Hallo zusammen! Happy Tuesday, everyone. My opinion today isn’t fixed on whether the market is definitively declining, but I will tell you exactly what I’m seeing on the charts. This way, you can form your own hypotheses, perhaps refute my view, and maybe even change my mind! I’ll focus on Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH),…
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Hallo zusammen! Happy Monday, everyone. My view today is that the crypto market, especially Bitcoin (BTC), stands at a very interesting juncture. It’s a moment that demands extreme caution and close observation. The first week of November closed out in the red. However, since Friday, the price has been held up, even bouncing a little,…
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Hallo zusammen! It’s Friday, November 7, 2025, and as we head into the weekend, I’ve been reflecting on the market’s bigger picture. A couple of weeks ago (October 22, to be exact), I published a post about a potential Elliott Wave count I was seeing on the weekly chart for ETH. (You can read that…
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Hallo zusammen! Apologies for the late post today; I ran into some technical issues this morning. I won’t dwell too long on my overall market sentiment, as it hasn’t changed significantly. Yesterday, while technically a “green day” for our assets of study (BTC +2.6%, ETH +4.2%, SOL +4.2%, and BNB +2.47%), I view this merely…