Hello everyone!

New week, new challenges, indeed. After the intense discussions we had last week about the “Orchestra Wagon” and the potential end of the bullish impulse, I want to approach today with a clean slate, letting the charts speak for themselves without my prior biases interfering. My current stance isn’t about “trading” right now; it’s about “waiting.”

Over the weekend, both Bitcoin and Ethereum showed some signs of recovery from the previous days’ sharp declines. However, as any seasoned trader knows, weekend movements aren’t always reliable indicators of a true market shift. Often, they’re thinner markets prone to whipsaws.

Today, though, is different. We’ve seen a noticeable upward impulse, with our three participants—BTC, ETH, and SOL—averaging more than a 1.5% gain so far. This is significant. But for me, the true litmus test always comes with the opening of the American market. While other markets react to important news, the U.S. market is still the primary driver, the one that truly sets the tone globally. And as of now, I haven’t seen any major, market-moving announcements today that would justify a complete reversal of last week’s sentiment.

This brings me to Ethereum. ETH is currently butting heads with what I like to call the “super-resistance” around $4,080. I call it that because it’s a level that has historically acted as both strong support and fierce resistance, consistently rejecting price pushes or providing solid floors. So far today, this super-resistance is indeed rejecting the price.

Let’s see what the rest of the day holds. For now, it’s less about active trading and more about disciplined observation.

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The Macro Landscape: A Quiet Day for Catalysts

Today’s macroeconomic calendar is remarkably light on high-impact events for both the U.S. and Europe.

• U.S.: The Conference Board Leading Economic Index is scheduled for release, but it’s generally a softer, coincident indicator rather than a clear market mover. Crucially, we have no major inflation, employment, or GDP data expected.
• Europe: Similarly, there are no top-tier macro data points in the Eurozone today that are expected to trigger significant market shifts.

Operational Interpretation: In the absence of a “macro bomb,” the market will primarily be driven by technical factors: price action around key levels, sentiment-induced volatility, and the monitoring of overextended moves. For us, this means our edge lies in meticulously observing price structure—supports, resistances, breakouts—rather than waiting for an external catalyst. The ongoing U.S. government shutdown still creates an information void, making the market highly sensitive to any unexpected news or technical developments.

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Technical Analysis: Waiting for Confirmation (30-Min Charts)

Now, let’s dive into the charts, focusing on price action, RSI, MACD, and moving averages on the 30-minute timeframe from Binance.

(Current reference prices: BTC ~$110,800, ETH ~$4,040, SOL ~$193.30. Remember, these are observations, not predictions or recommendations.)

BTCUSDT (30 min)

Bitcoin, currently around $110,800, shows signs of trying to reclaim lost ground but is still in a consolidation phase.

• Immediate Resistance: ~$111,500 – $112,500
• Pivot / Control Zone: ~$109,500 – $111,000
• Key Support: ~$107,000 – $108,500

Price Action & What to Watch: * To confirm a sustained push, BTC needs a clean, high-volume close above $111,500, followed by a successful retest where this level holds as support. * If price hits this resistance and shows long upper wicks (rejection), it suggests sellers are still present. * On the downside, a decisive break and close below $109,500 with volume could open the path towards $107,000.

Indicators: RSI (30m) is likely attempting to push into bullish territory. MACD will be trying to cross bullishly. Watch for these indicators to gain strength, but don’t solely rely on them; price action at key levels is paramount.

ETHUSDT (30 min)

Ethereum, trading around $4,040, is pressing against that significant “super-resistance.”

• Immediate Resistance (Super-Resistance): ~$4,080 – $4,150
• Pivot / Control Zone: ~$3,950 – $4,050
• Key Support: ~$3,750 – $3,850

Price Action & What to Watch: * The crucial move for ETH is a convincing, high-volume close above $4,080 (our super-resistance). A successful retest holding this level would be a strong bullish signal. * If we see long upper wicks (rejection) near this $4,080-$4,150 zone, it confirms sellers are actively defending it, likely pushing price back into the pivot zone. * A decisive break and close below $3,950 could lead to a test of the $3,750 support.

Indicators: RSI (30m) is likely showing strength, but watch for signs of overextension if it pushes into the 70s. MACD will be key for confirming bullish momentum or warning of exhaustion if it starts to flatten.

SOLUSDT (30 min)

Solana, currently around $193.30, is also showing an upward impulse.

• Immediate Resistance: ~$195 – $200
• Pivot / Control Zone: ~$188 – $193
• Key Support: ~$180 – $185

Price Action & What to Watch: * For a sustained move higher, SOL needs a convincing close above $195, followed by a retest that holds this level as support. * Rejection (long upper wicks) near $195-$200 would suggest sellers are defending this area. * A break and close below $188 with volume could lead to a test of the $180-$185 support.

Indicators: Similar to BTC and ETH, look for RSI to reflect momentum and MACD for crosses. Given its recent strong move, watch for potential overbought signals.

Final Thoughts: The Power of “Waiting”

Today, with no major macro catalysts, the market is truly a technical battleground. The slight recovery over the weekend and today’s early impulse are noted, but until the U.S. market truly speaks, and until ETH can conquer its “super-resistance,” my stance remains one of “waiting.”

This doesn’t mean inactivity; it means patient observation. Set your alerts, define your levels, and only engage when true, confirmed price action aligns with your strategy. Avoid chasing pumps or reacting impulsively. In a market like this, the best trade is often no trade at all, especially when faced with an “unreliable” bounce.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and represents personal observations and technical analysis. It does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Please conduct your own research and consult a professional before making any financial decisions. For our full statement, please read our disclaimer here: https://tavoplus.com/disclaimer/