Good morning, everyone. As we head into Friday, the financial landscape remains as nuanced as ever. The ongoing U.S. government shutdown continues to cast a long shadow, forcing us to rely on alternative data points and official commentary to gauge market sentiment.

Beyond the macro headlines, today brings a classic “Friday factor” into play: contract expirations. This can often add an extra layer of volatility, especially in derivatives markets, and it’s something we always need to be mindful of, particularly in an already sensitive environment.

And speaking of sensitivity, my personal view from yesterday still holds strong, perhaps even more so as I watch the charts. The feeling that we might be due for a correction, or at least a significant cooling-off period, continues to grow.

Let’s break down the day’s catalysts and then dive into the technical picture.

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The Macro View: A Week of Scarcity

🏛️ U.S. Government Shutdown & Data Drought

The story here hasn’t changed: the federal government shutdown, now in its second week, means our usual stream of reliable economic data (employment, inflation, etc.) from key agencies is either halted or significantly delayed. This absence of foundational data forces markets to become incredibly sensitive to any available input, whether it’s official statements, private surveys, or shifts in consumer mood.

📉 Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Preliminary)

Today’s most notable U.S. economic release is the preliminary Consumer Sentiment Index from the University of Michigan for October. While not as impactful as GDP or CPI, in this data-starved environment, it gains considerable importance. This index offers a direct look into how American households are feeling about their finances and the broader economy, acting as a crucial barometer for overall market confidence.

🇪🇺 Europe: Regulatory Moves in Crypto

While Europe lacks high-impact macro indicators today, the regulatory environment for crypto is buzzing. Recent announcements indicate that ESMA (the European financial markets authority) is preparing to expand its oversight of crypto exchanges, firms, and clearing houses across the EU. This isn’t a “today” event in terms of a single release, but it’s a constant backdrop, shaping expectations and potentially influencing crypto assets and fintech companies operating in Europe.

Today’s Macro Conclusion: The data vacuum from the U.S. shutdown makes markets highly dependent on sentiment and carefully chosen alternative indicators. The Michigan Consumer Sentiment index could therefore have a noticeable, albeit moderate, impact on U.S. equities. In crypto, technical breakouts and unexpected news will likely drive movements.

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The Friday Factor: Contract Expirations

As it’s Friday, we also need to consider the impact of options and futures contract expirations. On these days, market makers and large institutions often adjust their positions, which can lead to increased volatility, particularly as the day progresses towards the close of trading for these contracts. This often results in “pinning” price around certain levels or exaggerated moves as positions are rolled over or settled. In a market already sensitive to external cues, this amplifies the need for caution and confirms our focus on clear price action signals.

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My Personal Market Read: The Correction Bell?

My conviction from yesterday about a potential market correction has only strengthened. When I look at the charts, a few things really jump out at me:

Firstly, ETHUSDT’s persistent failure to break its ATH, after four solid attempts, is a flashing red light. It tells me there’s a serious wall of sellers up there, and the energy required to break it keeps increasing.

Secondly, Bitcoin, the undeniable leader of this show, had that fantastic run up to $125,000, but now I’m seeing those bearish engulfing patterns on the daily chart. For BTC, these aren’t just minor blips; they’re strong signals that the momentum might be shifting.

A quick note on engulfing patterns in crypto: In traditional markets, these often involve a “gap” where today’s open is higher than yesterday’s close. However, in continuous 24/7 crypto markets, true gaps are rare. Instead, we interpret an engulfing pattern when the body of a bearish candle completely covers and exceeds the body of the preceding bullish candle, showing a powerful shift in control to the sellers, even without an opening gap.

Combining ETH’s struggle with BTC’s daily patterns, I’m genuinely asking myself if we’re hitting a temporary top here, or at least entering a significant period of consolidation or pullback. The next few days will be critical.

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Technical Analysis: Price Action Focus (30-Min Charts)

Given this backdrop, our focus on raw price action, supported by key indicators, is more important than ever.

(Current BTC reference price: ~$121,137 USD. Remember, these are observations, not predictions.)

BTCUSDT (30 min)

• Structural Resistance: ~$123,800 – $124,500
• Pivot / Mid-Control Zone: ~$121,200 – $122,800
• Critical Support: ~$119,500 – $120,800

Price Action & Signals: * A clean break above $123,800 with strong volume and a solid candle body would indicate continuation towards $124,500+. * Long upper wicks near this resistance would signal selling pressure, suggesting a potential retreat. * A strong bearish candle closing below $120,800 would open the path towards the $119,500 support.

Indicators (RSI, MACD, MAs): * RSI (30 min): Watch for approaches to 70 and subsequent rejections, signaling overbought conditions. Neutral territory (40-60) allows for movement either way. * MACD: A MACD line crossing above its signal line indicates bullish momentum; a cross below suggests weakening. * Moving Averages (e.g., 50/200 MA): A bullish crossover (MA50 above MA200) reinforces positive bias; the inverse suggests structural weakness.

ETHUSDT (30 min)

• Resistance: ~$4,450 – $4,550
• Intermediate Control Zone: ~$4,300 – $4,400
• Strong Support: ~$4,050 – $4,250

Price Action & Signals: * A powerful candle close above $4,550 could signal a push towards $4,650+. * Long upper wicks near $4,550 would indicate rejection and selling pressure. * A bearish candle closing below $4,300 with conviction could accelerate a move towards $4,050-$4,250.

Indicators: * RSI: Rejections from the 70 zone can mark technical tops. * MACD: A bullish cross strengthens upside potential; a bearish cross signals vulnerability. * Moving Averages: An MA50 crossing above MA200 confirms an upward bias; the opposite would warn of weakness.

SOLUSDT (30 min)

• Immediate Resistance: ~$230 – $240
• Mid-Control Zone: ~$220 – $228
• Significant Support: ~$200 – $215

Price Action & Signals: * A strong candle close above $240 without a large upper shadow suggests continuation towards $250+. * Long upper wicks when testing $240 indicate strong rejection and selling interest. * A powerful bearish candle closing below $220 could precipitate a move towards $200-$215.

Indicators: * RSI: Close monitoring near the 70 zone for potential reversals. * MACD: A bullish cross is favorable; a bearish cross is a warning. * Moving Averages: An MA50 bullish cross over MA200 confirms structure; a bearish cross implies weakening.

Final Thoughts & Cautions for Today

Today, with the absence of robust U.S. macro data and the added “Friday factor” of contract expirations, the market is highly susceptible to sentiment, unexpected news, or institutional statements. This increases the likelihood of false breakouts, making confirmation (like a successful retest of a broken level) absolutely crucial.

Always use strict risk management—stop-losses and controlled position sizing—especially in such an uncertain environment. And remember, indicators are filters, but pure price action should always be your priority.

Wir sehen uns am Montag wieder!

Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and represents personal observations and technical analysis. It does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Please conduct your own research and consult a professional before making any financial decisions. For our full statement, please read our disclaimer here: https://tavoplus.com/disclaimer/