1) Today’s U.S. Agenda (potential catalysts) Times in ET / CEST (Berlin)

• Initial Jobless Claims – 08:30 ET / 14:30 CEST. A weekly indicator that usually moves Treasuries, USD, and “risk.” Source: FXStreet
• Continuing Jobless Claims – 08:30 ET / 14:30 CEST (released with initial claims). Source: finviz.com
• Factory Orders (August) – 10:00 ET / 16:00 CEST. Sensitive for industrial/cyclical sectors; today, the consensus was watching for a rebound after July’s -1.3%. Source: Census.gov
• EIA Natural Gas Storage – 10:30 ET / 16:30 CEST (weekly; energy). Source: ir.eia.gov
• ISM Services – tomorrow, Friday, Oct 3, 10:00 ET / 16:00 CEST (monitoring only today). Source: ismworld.org

Context: The federal shutdown is delaying/clouding some of the data flow and complicates the Fed’s “data-dependence”; this can increase sensitivity to surprises and private data. Next FOMC: Oct 28–29. Sources: marketwatch.com, Reuters

Tactical Take: Today, the focus is on Jobless Claims (labor pace), Factory Orders (industrial cycle), and EIA gas (energy). In the absence of CPI/NFP today, the market may react more to technicals and headlines.

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2) Crypto Market — 30-min Technicals (Binance): Candlesticks + RSI/MACD

Note: I do not have direct access to your Binance feed in this environment; therefore, I am providing levels with specific RSI(14) and MACD(12,26,9) triggers to execute on the 30-min chart. In recent consolidations, it is common to see RSI between 45–55 and MACD near 0; the continuation/breakout triggers are detailed below.

BTCUSDT (30 min)

• Structure: Consolidation range after a bullish leg.
• Resistances: 117.5k–119.5k
• Supports: 114.5k–115.5k (key); 111.5k–112.5k (structural)
• Candlestick Signals: Rejection with long upper wicks at resistance; hammers at support.
• RSI(14) 30-min – Triggers
  • Continuation buy if RSI > 55 and candle closes > 117.5k with a wide real body.
  • Sell/weakness alert if RSI < 45 and it loses 114.5k with a solid body.
  • False breakout likely if RSI does not exceed 55 on an upside break or does not fall below 45 on a downside break.
• MACD(12,26,9) 30-min – Triggers
  • Bull: MACD crosses↑ above the signal line and above 0 + expanding histogram → validation for an attack on 119.5k and extension to 123k–125k.
  • Bear: MACD crosses↓ below 0 after losing 114.5k → risk of acceleration to 112k.
• Management: Place stops below the breakout candle; first TP at the other end of the range, second on the extension.

ETHUSDT (30 min)

• Structure: More volatile than BTC within the range; ceilings are still firm.
• Resistances: 4,700–4,850
• Supports: 4,450–4,550 (operational); 4,200–4,300 (defensive)
• Candles: Upper wicks at 4.7k–4.85k; hammers at 4.45k–4.55k.
• RSI(14) 30-min
  • Breakout long if RSI > 55 and closes > 4,800 with volume → 5,000+ on extension.
  • Short/hedge if RSI < 45 and closes < 4,450 → 4,200–4,300.
• MACD(12,26,9)
  • Strong signal if MACD crosses↑ above the signal line and moves into positive territory after consolidating above 4,700.
  • Bearish risk if MACD crosses↓ and the histogram becomes more negative as 4,450 gives way.
• Management: A “break-pullback-continuation” pattern above 4,800 is preferable to reduce false breakouts.

SOLUSDT (30 min)

• Structure: Buyers are defending floors well; the ceiling still shows rejection.
• Resistances: 255–260 (primary); 263–270 (secondary)
• Supports: 238–243 (intra-day); 230–235 (structural)
• Candles: Upper wicks at 255–260; clean bounces at 238–243.
• RSI(14) 30-min
  • Continuation if RSI > 55 and closes > 260 → target 263–270.
  • Weakness if RSI < 45 and closes < 238 → likely drop to 230–235.
• MACD(12,26,9)
  • Long: MACD crosses↑ with a growing histogram above 0 after a break of 260.
  • Short: MACD crosses↓ with a more negative histogram upon losing 238.
• Management: In a range, use a “support→resistance” strategy with tight stops; on a breakout, validate with MACD/volume.

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3) Implications for Portfolio / Today’s Timing

• Volatility Window: 14:30–16:30 CEST (Claims, Factory Orders, EIA gas). Avoid opening large positions right before the data prints; it’s better to use conditional orders on a breakout with RSI/MACD confirmation.
• Short-term Bias: As long as RSI remains between 45–55 and MACD is near 0, the bias remains range-bound. Directional confirmation will come from BTC breaking 117.5k / 114.5k, ETH 4,800 / 4,450, or SOL 260 / 238 with accompanying RSI and MACD signals.
• Headline Risk (shutdown/Fed): The market is hypersensitive to news/regulation; manage gap risk and consider intraday hedges if you are trading with leverage. Source: marketwatch.com

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. All content is based on an objective analysis of market data. Please conduct your own research and consult with a professional before making any financial decisions. For a full statement, please read our disclaimer here: https://tavoplus.com/disclaimer/