Category: Crypto
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The Lone Trader’s Watch: The Great Pause, Retail Traps, and the Deceptive “Wave B” (January 8, 2026)
Hallo zusammen! Happy New Year to everyone. I haven’t written since December 5th. Several personal reasons kept me from reviewing the market in depth, but there is another, perhaps more significant reason for my silence: I haven’t seen any important changes in the market structure, at least for BTC and ETH, that motivated me to…
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Hallo zusammen! It’s Friday, December 5, 2025. Today, I want to step away from the intraday noise and share an opinion piece regarding the Bitcoin (BTC) weekly chart. I want to be crystal clear: What I am writing today is a theory based on Elliott Wave principles and Price Action. It does not mean it…
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Hallo zusammen! It’s funny how a bullish trap works. On Friday, during the half-day session and options expiry, BTC faced a critical crossroads at its long-term trendline. As I mentioned, this line had been broken days earlier, but a potential reversal signal—an inverted hammer on Sunday the 23rd, confirmed on Monday the 24th—gave some hope.…
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Hallo zusammen! It’s Friday, November 28, 2025. The market opens after Thanksgiving, and I have to admit, I feel a bit of fear. Today is “Black Friday.” In my country, for people of my generation, this term is almost always associated with devaluation and banking crises—the opposite of the shopping frenzy it means for the…
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Hallo zusammen! It’s Thursday, November 27, 2025. I’m still shaping the style of these posts. I don’t think a daily update is necessary—I’ll only write when a significant event occurs or something truly captures my attention. I hadn’t written since last Friday (Nov 21) because, until yesterday, I didn’t see a major change. In that…
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Hallo zusammen! It’s Friday, November 21, 2025. Today, I want to discuss a potential reversal signal. On November 16, a Death Cross occurred on the BTC daily chart (where the 50-day SMA crosses below the 200-day SMA). This signal is notoriously difficult to interpret correctly. Many traditional traders view it as a definitive bearish omen.…
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Hallo zusammen! Today, November 20, 2025, I want to talk about a common phrase in the crypto world—one that, far from helping adoption, often has tragic consequences for newcomers dazzled by stories of absurd gains. It’s the almost unanimous cry from anyone with a bit of social media influence: “BUY THE DIP!” Many of these…
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Hallo zusammen! Let’s dive into the market on this Wednesday, November 19, 2025. Yesterday, we saw a positive day for all the assets we analyze: BTC +0.88%, ETH +3.12%, SOL a powerful +7.46%, and BNB +2.46%. The European open was negative, only for the market to rebound during the American session. This is a frequent,…
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Hallo zusammen! Let’s analyze where we stand this Tuesday, November 18, 2025. Yesterday, I held back from diving too deep into a suspicion I had, simply to avoid falling into the trap of “predicting.” Instead, I chose to wait. Why? Because I was seeing the exact same pattern that played out three times last week:…
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Hallo zusammen! Friday, November 14, 2025. A day for reflection. Referring to what I wrote in yesterday’s post (which you can read here: the-lone-traders-watch-third-times-the-charm-cpi-algos-and-the-green-morning-trap-november-13-2025), yesterday was a crucial day. It was the third time this week the market violently tried to decide a direction, with average movements of 5% on each attempt. Yesterday, the market…